Building a Darts Betting Strategy

Familiarise Yourself with the Markets

Darts betting offers a wide range of markets to suit different strategies. Here are the most popular:

• Match Winner: A straightforward bet on who will win the match. For example, betting on Gerwyn Price to beat Peter Wright in a head-to-head.
• Total Legs/Sets: Predicting the number of legs or sets in a match, such as over/under 9.5 legs.
• 180s Market: Betting on how many 180s a player or match will produce. For instance, betting on Michael Smith to hit over 5.5 180s.
• Handicap Markets: Ideal for mismatched games, where a stronger player starts with a leg or set disadvantage.
• Special Markets: Unique bets like Nine-Dart Finish or Highest Checkout, which often offer higher odds.

Beginners are advised to stick to simpler markets like Match Winner before exploring more complex options.

Analyse Player Form

Player form is a critical factor in determining the outcome of darts matches. Focus on:

• Recent Performances: Review the last 5–10 matches. A player on a winning streak is likely to perform well.
• Tournament Success: Some players excel in specific tournaments. For example, Jonny Clayton thrives in high-stakes events like the World Grand Prix.
• Consistency in Scoring: Players with a high three-dart average (100+) tend to dominate matches.

Example: If Michael van Gerwen averages 105+ in his recent games, he’s a strong choice for the Match Winner market.

Study Playing Styles

Understanding a player’s style can help you pick the right markets:

• Scorers: Players like Michael Smith excel at hitting high scores and 180s.
• Finishers: James Wade is known for his accuracy in checkouts, making him ideal for markets like Highest Checkout.

Example: Bet on James Wade in a finishing market if his checkout percentage exceeds 50% in recent games.

Head-to-Head Records

Examine how players have performed against each other in the past. Patterns often emerge:

• Does one player consistently dominate?
• Do their matches tend to go the distance?

Example: If Peter Wright has a strong record against Rob Cross, consider backing Wright in the Match Winner market.

Leverage Key Stats

Base your bets on data for more informed decisions:

• Three-Dart Averages: Indicates scoring consistency.
• Checkout Percentages: Shows finishing reliability under pressure.
• 180s Hit: Essential for scoring markets.

Example: If a player has hit 6+ 180s per match in recent games, they are a solid pick for over 5.5 180s.

Spotting Trends

Identify patterns in player performance:

• Momentum Shifts: Players often dominate after scoring consecutive high points.
• Fatigue in Long Matches: Watch for signs of fatigue in best-of-19 or longer formats.

Example: A player struggling in the later stages of matches might underperform in a deciding leg.

Define Clear Objectives

What’s your goal? Determine if you’re seeking:

• Consistent Wins: Focus on low-risk markets like Match Winner.
• High Rewards: Explore higher-risk markets like Handicap or Nine-Dart Finish.

Example: If you prefer consistent returns, back favourites in shorter formats like the Premier League of Darts.

Choose the Right Staking Plan

Staking plans ensure you manage your bankroll effectively:

• Flat Staking: Bet the same amount on every wager.
• Percentage Staking: Bet a fixed percentage of your bankroll, such as 2% per bet.
• Kelly Criterion: Adjust stakes based on perceived value and probability.

Example: Using a percentage staking plan, bet £5 (2% of a £250 bankroll) on medium-risk markets.

Handicap Markets

Use handicap markets to find value in mismatched games:

• Example: Bet on Gerwyn Price -2.5 legs in a best-of-11 match against an unseeded player.

In-Play Betting

Adapt your bets during matches:

• Example: If Michael Smith loses the first two legs but starts hitting consistent 180s, consider backing him to win the next leg.

Value Betting

Look for odds where the bookmaker underestimates a player’s chances:

• Example: If Jonny Clayton is priced at 2.5 but his stats suggest he should be 1.8, this represents value.

Overreliance on Favourites

Backing heavy favourites often offers low returns. Instead, explore alternative markets like Handicap or Total 180s for better value.

Ignoring Match Conditions

Venue, crowd, and match format can significantly affect performance.

Example: A player might struggle in a high-pressure evening session compared to a quieter afternoon game.

Emotional Betting

Avoid betting based on personal bias or favourite players without objective analysis.

1. What’s the best market for beginners?

Start with Match Winner or Total Legs markets. They are easier to understand and analyse.

2. How do I identify value bets?

Compare odds across multiple bookmakers and cross-reference them with player stats and recent form.

3. Should I use betting tools?

Yes, tools like staking calculators and odds comparison sites help refine your strategy.

4. How do I recover from losses?

Stick to your staking plan, avoid chasing losses, and focus on bets with strong statistical backing.

5. Do long formats offer better opportunities?

Yes, long formats provide more data and allow for better-informed bets.

Developing a darts betting strategy is a journey of research, discipline, and continual improvement. By understanding markets, leveraging player stats, and applying advanced strategies, you can enhance both your enjoyment and profitability. Remember, always bet responsibly and use strategies to minimise risks. Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned punter, a well-thought-out approach ensures you stay ahead in the game. Good luck at the oche!